How much of a victory/defeat do you attribute to luck?

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ParanoidEngineer
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How much of a victory/defeat do you attribute to luck?

Postby ParanoidEngineer » Sat Aug 11, 2012 2:04 pm

So I just came back from playing a 1000pt game against an Empire player, and whilst I did win using some rather effective (or as a great Ukrainian once said, "special") tactics, his dice rolls were horrendus at times (when your Skavenslaves kill two Knights with slings, you know your opponent is having a bad day), and it prompted the above question: when you win, or when you lose, roughly how much do you attribute to your awesome list and tactics, and how much do attribute to you/your opponent rolling two one's when rolling a 1+ armour save?
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Re: How much of a victory/defeat do you attribute to luck?

Postby Arnathos » Sat Aug 11, 2012 2:37 pm

Well it depends, normally the luck tends to even out when enough rolls are made, in my last couple of games though, luck was somewhat of a factor, like a dragon making 4 6+ saves out of 7 wounds. And a game against tomb kings before that, where I made about 3-5 ward saves over the course of the entire game, and my opponent who had the same save due to spells, didn't fail a single one(literally).

Normally though, as I said it balanced out, but I have yet to play a game where luck determined everything, there is always positioning and tactics which play quite a big part.
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Re: How much of a victory/defeat do you attribute to luck?

Postby Todda » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:48 pm

Typically the larger the game the less a single die roll will effect thing... especially in Fantasy. I would say that luck makes up less than 10%.
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Re: How much of a victory/defeat do you attribute to luck?

Postby Switchblade » Sun Aug 12, 2012 12:54 am

Yeah, but that 10% is usually either hilarious, or destroys a major chunk o something, be it Army, tactics, or your emotional hold against grabbing the offending figure off the table and threatening to melt it in a high-power microwave until it makes it's save.... And making the rest of the unit watch.

You guys do that too, right?
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Re: How much of a victory/defeat do you attribute to luck?

Postby jackels » Sun Aug 12, 2012 1:39 am

Switchblade wrote: or your emotional hold against grabbing the offending figure off the table and threatening to melt it in a high-power microwave until it makes it's save.... And making the rest of the unit watch.


First of all LOL!

Secondly, you make your own luck in Warhammer. Sure if you roll all 1's all the times your going to lose, but if you put yourself in the position where the enemy cant hit you and your in a position for good charges and easy combats, your going to win.

I guess what im try to say is, that while luck does play a role, it really depends on how you play the game.
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Re: How much of a victory/defeat do you attribute to luck?

Postby Sparker » Tue Aug 14, 2012 4:59 am

Hi ParanoidEngineer,

I raised a similar topic to this a while back claiming that between me and my cousin (who all my battles are against) he has better 'luck'. Generally better rolls, better charges, better saves, etc.

The consensus was that luck is partly responsible but overall you make your own luck. I did agree with this and have worked on my own plans tactically to try and match my cousin's good fortune.

Thankfully, it worked :D

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Re: How much of a victory/defeat do you attribute to luck?

Postby Pancakey » Tue Aug 14, 2012 5:11 pm

You don't roll enough dice in one game to get the statistic average of all your dice. Games can be VERY streaky, as in the 6 out of 7 6A+ saves made mentioned above.

You cannot win warhammer if the dice rolls are not there. The game is built around the idea of "average" but i've seen some games where it never "averages out"! Double sixes for leadership with reroll? It happens, but it's those crazy moments that make the game very memorable! You just have laugh when the goblin war machine crew kills a hell cannon! :twisted:

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Re: How much of a victory/defeat do you attribute to luck?

Postby Todda » Tue Aug 14, 2012 6:25 pm

That is not true. I can roll pretty bad and still win games. It takes a massively unbalanced list and or a lot of absolutely horrible dice for my to loose a game. Now the smaller the list is the more a single roll can effect the game. I have lost 2 games in 3+ years now. One was a 500 point battle against my brother and he took a Land Raider... in a 500 point game on Friday. I had one chance to take it out and needed a 6" charge with my Screamers and failed. I lost. The last time before that was Fantasy 'Ard Boys last year (3K points). Out of 9 artillery dice I rolled 7 misfires in the first turn. The game also had fog rules giving you a visibility of 3x Artillery dice each turn. After the first turn I rolled a 2 for the next 2 turns. Not being able to charge, shoot at, or use magic on any unit more than 6" away was not fun. I had nothing resembling normal dice until the the end of the 4th turn. Even with below average rolls pretty much the rest of the game I was almost able to pull off a draw. I just could not take on Fateweaver that game. I did a rematch 2 weeks later and with still below average rolls I was able to pull off a win.
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Re: How much of a victory/defeat do you attribute to luck?

Postby Zero » Tue Aug 14, 2012 7:26 pm

I've had a few games where I probably would've won had I not had some ridiculously bad luck. Mind you though, my skill was about on-par with my opponent's, and in cases like that I think things like how good your list is and how good your dice are can make all the difference.

Most of the time though I do agree that luck generally makes up a small amount of how much you win by.
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Re: How much of a victory/defeat do you attribute to luck?

Postby Arnathos » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:04 am

I would also like to add that in my last 14 games with them, my bloodcrushers have consistently underpreformed every time. Always missing all their attacks despite WS5 and always failing to wound despite S6/S5. They also tend to neber make any saves. My fiend on the other hand has always gotten his points back, even in crazy amounts, even though his stats are somewhat worse in most places.

It is a luck thing for sure, but as soon as I get my 2nd fiend painted, my crushers are going on the shelf.
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