Tons of Comments - Sit and Talk - Part 1/3

DownloadDownload (Vault Members Only)
Tons of Comments - Sit and Talk - Part 2/3Tons of Comments - Sit and Talk - Part 3/3

Log in above or Register Now to be able to post a comment and rate this content.

  Comments: 1 to 25 of 102   Other Episodes From Sit and Talk   Share  
misomiso (Over a year ago): - delete
Ok last repost. Really really sorry to everyone but I spotted a deliberate mistake in the Maths%u2026tried to delete the other posts but couldn%u2019t do it

Hey Mat
Posted this here as Id like to see you discuss. Ive noticed in you BRs that you always complain that your Tervigons stops creating Gaunts on Turn 1. This is quite an interesting probability question, and I cant find anywhere on the Internet that addresses this very well, so just for you, here is the comprehensive answer as to whether you should be upset if the Tervigon only produces on Turn 1.

The first question is what is the chance of rolling any doubles on 3d6? There are 216 totally unique roles on 3d6 (6*6*6), and of those, 96 contain doubles (16 of each type of double, which consists of three lots of 6 (18) MINUS (important) the two extra triples calculated). So the chance of rolling any double in any given role is 96/216, or 44%.

Next we take a five turn game, and work out the probability of the Tervigon ceasing to produce on any given turn.

Turn 1 44%
Turn 2 24.64% (0.56*0.44)
Turn 3 13.80% (0.56^2*0.44)
Turn 4 7.73% (0.56^3*0.44)
Turn 5 9.83%
On turn five, as it is the end of the game, it doesnt matter whether a double is rolled or not as there will not be an additional turn.

We then take the average number rolled on a 3d6, which is 3.5*3 or 10.5 (average roll on a six sided die is 3.5), and multiply the amount of Gaunts produced each turn to the chance of that turn happening.

Turn 1 0.44*10.5 =4.62
Turn 2 0.6464*21 =5.17
Turn 3 0.1380*32.5 =4.48
Turn 4 0.0773*42 =3.25
Turn 5 0.0983*52.5 =5.16

We then add these together and find that the average number of Gaunts produced by a Tervigon in a five turn game is 23(22.7).

BUT this average is high, because of the small probability of producing huge amounts of Gaunts (eg 42 by turn 4). The Mode (single most likely outcome) is only 10.5, as on the first turn there is still a whopping 44% chance that your Tervigon will cease production.

Note that for games over 5 turns the probability will be higher, and if a producing Tervigon is killed, then your average plummets, as on the next turn they would produce an average of 10.5 more Gaunts, and have a 56% chance of continuing to produce the following turns. Producing Tervigons must be protected at all costs in order to get best value from them.

So in strict probability terms you SHOULD be upset if a Tervigon stops creating Turn 1, but if you keep the ones alive that do keep producing then you should do very well!
misomiso (Over a year ago): - delete
Reposted as problem with apostrophies

Hey Mat
Posted this here as Id like to see you discuss. Ive noticed in you BRs that you always complain that your Tervigons stops creating Gaunts on Turn 1. This is quite an interesting probability question, and I cant find anywhere on the Internet that addresses this very well, so just for you, here is the comprehensive answer as to whether you should be upset if the Tervigon only produces on Turn 1.

The first question is what is the chance of rolling any doubles on 3d6? There are 216 totally unique roles on 3d6 (6*6*6), and of those, 96 contain doubles (16 of each type of double, which consists of three lots of 6 (18) MINUS (important) the two extra triples calculated). So the chance of rolling any double in any given role is 96/216, or 44%.

Next we take a five turn game, and work out the probability of the Tervigon ceasing to produce on any given turn.

Turn 1 44%
Turn 2 23.76% (0.54*0.44)
Turn 3 12.83% (0.54^2*0.44)
Turn 4 6.93% (0.54^3*0.44)
Turn 5 8.33%
On turn five, as it is the end of the game, it doesnt matter whether a double is rolled or not as there will not be an additional turn.

We then take the average number rolled on a 3d6, which is 3.5*3 or 10.5 (average roll on a six sided die is 3.5), and multiply the amount of Gaunts produced each turn to the chance of that turn happening.

Turn 1 0.44*10.5 =4.62
Turn 2 0.2376*21 =4.99
Turn 3 0.1283*32.5 =4.17
Turn 4 0.0693*42 =2.91
Turn 5 0.0833*52.5 =4.37

We then add these together and find that the average number of Gaunts produced by a Tervigon in a five turn game is 21.

BUT this average is high, because of the small probability of producing huge amounts of Gaunts (eg 42 by turn 4). The Mode (single most likely outcome) is only 10.5, as on the first turn there is still a whopping 44% chance that your Tervigon will cease production.

Note that for games over 5 turns the probability will be higher, and if a producing Tervigon is killed, then your average plummets, as on the next turn they would produce an average of 10.5 more Gaunts, and have a 54% chance of continuing to produce the following turns. Producing Tervigons must be protected at all costs in order to get best value from them.

So in strict probability terms you should be upset if a Tervigon stops producing Turn 1, but if real life if you got a good roll try not to be too unhappy!

misomiso (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey Mat
Posted this here as I%u2019d like to see you discuss. I%u2019ve noticed in you BR%u2019s that you always complain that your Tervigons stops creating Gaunts on Turn 1. This is quite an interesting probability question, and I can%u2019t find anywhere on the Internet that addresses this very well, so just for you, here is the comprehensive answer as to whether you should be upset if the Tervigon only produces on Turn 1.

The first question is what is the chance of rolling any doubles on 3d6? There are 216 totally unique roles on 3d6 (6*6*6), and of those, 96 contain doubles (16 of each type of double, which consists of three lots of 6 (18) MINUS (important) the two extra triples calculated). So the chance of rolling any double in any given role is 96/216, or 44%.

Next we take a five turn game, and work out the probability of the Tervigon ceasing to produce on any given turn.

Turn 1 44%
Turn 2 23.76% (0.54*0.44)
Turn 3 12.83% (0.54^2*0.44)
Turn 4 6.93% (0.54^3*0.44)
Turn 5 8.33%
On turn five, as it is the end of the game, it doesn%u2019t matter whether a double is rolled or not as there will not be an additional turn.

We then take the average number rolled on a 3d6, which is 3.5*3 or 10.5 (average roll on a six sided die is 3.5), and multiply the amount of Gaunts produced each turn to the chance of that turn happening.

Turn 1 0.44*10.5 =4.62
Turn 2 0.2376*21 =4.99
Turn 3 0.1283*32.5 =4.17
Turn 4 0.0693*42 =2.91
Turn 5 0.0833*52.5 =4.37

We then add these together and find that the average number of Gaunts produced by a Tervigon in a five turn game is 21.

BUT this average is high, because of the small probability of producing huge amounts of Gaunts (eg 42 by turn 4). The Mode (single most likely outcome) is only 10.5, as on the first turn there is still a whopping 44% chance that your Tervigon will cease production.

Note that for games over 5 turns the probability will be higher, and if a producing Tervigon is killed, then your average plummets, as on the next turn they would produce an average of 10.5 more Gaunts, and have a 54% chance of continuing to produce the following turns. Producing Tervigon%u2019s must be protected at all costs in order to get best value from them.

So in strict probability terms you should be upset if a Tervigon stops producing Turn 1, but if real life if you got a good roll try not to be too unhappy!
Ziosic (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey Matt.
Only being watching your videos since a few month but it brought back my flame for mini wargaming. My question is the folling, I can't decided between starting playing Warhammer Fantasy (by buying the Island of Blood) or Warmachine (By buying the two player set), which one you think is a better choice to jump back into the hobby?
bmoleski (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey Matt! I just wanted to say you've gotten me into Warhammer Fantasy! I already play 40k (Chaos SM and IG) but you've made me want to start a Tomb Kings army in Fantasy. I'm getting deployed overseas in a few months (I'll find a way to get on MWG somehow I promise) so it will have to wait until I get back. What's your favorite unit in the army? Mine is Price Apophas. A mummy made of scarabs? Yes please!
kayakalot (Over a year ago): - delete
yay just built a tactical squad
kayakalot (Over a year ago): - delete
on the subject of tau they can be good if the person uses them well. a tau player i play against always beats me, and i have never beaten him. please help.
kayakalot (Over a year ago): - delete
the 40k armys were originaly desined to be space versions of warhammer fantasy armys
Sarcasm (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey Matt now that you have shared your religious views with us how about we talk politics.. . or more politics. My question is what party on the federal level do you support. You do not have to answer this question, I will understand if you wish to keep some things private from your viewers.
redkeyboard (Over a year ago): - delete
or the eldar
redkeyboard (Over a year ago): - delete
@yohagan: Tau?
coolbloo22 (Over a year ago): - delete
I copy and posted this from the previous video Matt.

Hey Matt I made it to the end, I enjoy your vlogs and have found them helpful to pass the time painting/building. I have one quick question about some friends of mine, the problem is I have been in the hobby for about a year and played 30ish games with a plethora of friends/strangers but I have never lost a game. Now I don't consider myself a competitive player and I don't think am infallible and think its a real miracle that I haven't lost but the real problem is that the two friends I play often with freak out/complain/whine because they cannot beat me. I have tried to give them advice suggesting taticas and forums to learn how to combat my army but I think they have all but given up hope. So to clarify my question is should I try to purposely lose a game to either of them?
yohagan (Over a year ago): - delete
if
terran=space marines
zerg=tyranids
then
protoss=?
BoscoGotMilk (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey, Matt Thanks for the vlog. I painted a bloodletter and finished making my Grand Master Mordrak moddel with a custom cape and hammer. I wanted to ask if you did play ME3 what you thought about the ending. I also wanted to know if you have any tips for my chaos deamon army and what i should get next, i have a blood thirster, a ten man squad of Bloodletters, and pink horrors (which are not girly cause their pink) I was gonna for a fate weaver and some juggs. if you have any tips thanks.
Bannzai (Over a year ago): - delete
Long-time lurker, first time poster! Finally joined the vault when you did the magnet offer a few weeks ago, and I'm really enjoying the content. Are you shipping the magnets yet, because I've not heard anything about an ETA on the delivery, or even an order confirmation.

A bunch of us at work have gotten in to 40k recently, and your site has been great for teaching all sorts of stuff. I'm putting together an Ork army because I find their crazy style really fun, and I love Dan's bat reps.
BewareOfTom (Over a year ago): - delete
for in the 3rd part your talking about piracy, how do you feel about "digital backups"? like if you bought the book and just scanned it incase of it being wrecked somehow?
GuySmiley (Over a year ago): - delete
Hi Matt, Made it to the end! I love MiniWarGaming videos, I often have them in the background while I'm painting. You mentioned you started wargaming with GW's Lord of the Rings, do you still play? Have you played GW's War of the Rings? My sons and I are really getting into WotR, and really like painting the tons of troops needed. We're already excited for the Hobbit movies. When those get closer, do you think you guys might start batreps and/or "how to play" videos for LotR or WotR? Also, you mentioned not liking the scale of Heavy Gear Blitz, what do you think (if anything) of the Flames of War minis and game? Thanks!
Pricey333 (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey Matt, i have seen the new pots and they have a new tab on the back that stops them from closing on you while you paint.

I also had an idea for a possible competition in the future. Converting or making a miniature of your favourite scene/character from you favourite piece fluff from books codexes, army books or whatever. What would you make? Personally i would make Inquisitor Eisenhorne
Sovspot (Over a year ago): - delete
Maybe you should sell Flames of War. Became pretty popular in my games store.
Mandolore (Over a year ago): - delete
hey mat im new to warhammer n im starting tau could u give me some adivce n there r no one who play 40k here could give some advice with this as well also sorry for the rambling but do you think they will ever make more girl models like female imperal guards or female tau
mozza123 (Over a year ago): - delete
why dosent dan play with fred (the stompa)
DrakeMalice (Over a year ago): - delete
Sup Matt, what do you think of VASSAL? How does it affect your business?
Trex (Over a year ago): - delete
hell i love the tau codex. such a challenge but you can still win. of my last three games, ive tied one, lost one, and won one. but BS 4 would be amazing
CptValerius (Over a year ago): - delete
Just copied and pasted my comment from the last vid...sorry for the long comment.......Hey I watched the whole thing. Can't remember some of the questions I wanted to ask but a few are, with the vault monthly point reward system will you bee updating it in the near future? because I can't really decide what to get just started a 40k army so don't really want to use the points for warmachine yet even though I am tempted to. My main question is what is the GW 3 color tournament requirement? I am currently painting blood angels and they are mainly painted red so not sure how to fulfill this rule. And since u asked for a random question here it is: what do you think about my my little pony friendship Is magic?.......http://www.youtube.com/watc-h?v=JJbAT1wzS8U for starcraft fans ................................................................don't judge me Also just remembered...will you and/or anybody else be doing any live vlogs like you did a little while back...and do you think that GW will add some swarms or small attachments (like tau drones) to other races? i was thinking like servo skulls to the SM/IG armies (was thinking about a 40k book i read of ciaphas cain where some servo skulls were used in an assassination attempt by attaching small las weapons and chain weapons) To answer one question they do have a paint "conversion" page (http://www.games-workshop.com/gws/catalog/paintChart.jsp?catId=cat820002a&utm_term=other&utm_medium=email&utm_content=text-link-body&utm_source=e8700002-en_US&utm_campaign=PaintReminderNewsletter-en_US ) gives an idea of which paint to use where
JPisto (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey! So I started painting warhammer 40k about 7 years ago and just started picking the game up again. I realize I was fairly young when I started and the paint jobs are horrid! Is there any way I could go about getting the paint off? Or should I just paint over them? I am afraid there will be too much paint so it will cover up the detail. Great website and awesome batreps!
  Next Page
Sit and Talk: If the moon were a giant egg... Sit and Talk: If the moon were a giant egg...
by MiniWarGaming | rated 4.7/5.0
What would you do? Matthew answers this bizarre questions, and many others.
Sit and Talk: Chicken Wings, and Rule Errors Sit and Talk: Chicken Wings, and Rule Errors
by MiniWarGaming | rated 5.0/5.0
Matthew talks about why he doesn't eat hot and spicy chicken wings, the Rules you Get Wrong series, and a possible Necron vs Ork campaign.
Sit and Talk: Hiding Dave Sit and Talk: Hiding Dave's Cultists, Facial Hair, and Favourite Codex
by MiniWarGaming | rated 5.0/5.0
Matthew answers questions about all sorts of subjects, including facial hair envy, MWG as a TV station, and more.
Sit and Talk: Narrative Fantasy, Warhammer World, and More... Sit and Talk: Narrative Fantasy, Warhammer World, and More...
by MiniWarGaming | rated 4.9/5.0
Matthew answers questions about future narrative campaigns for other gaming systems, traveling to Warhammer World, and then has to run home to unlock the doors so his wife can get back inside as she locked herself out...
Sit and Talk: Other Game Batreps, MWG in 10 Years Sit and Talk: Other Game Batreps, MWG in 10 Years
by MiniWarGaming | rated 5.0/5.0
Matthew talks about how MWG and WMG are very similar, what other games we could cover in the future, and the potential future of GW and MWG.
Sit and Talk: Fantasy is Back Baby! Sit and Talk: Fantasy is Back Baby!
by MiniWarGaming | rated 4.9/5.0
Matthew talks about bringing back Warhammer Fantasy, keeping the hobby family friendly, and more.
Sit and Talk: Fantasy, New Shirts, and Codex Imbalance Sit and Talk: Fantasy, New Shirts, and Codex Imbalance
by MiniWarGaming | rated 4.9/5.0
Sit and Talk: Fantasy, New Shirts, and Codex Imbalance
Sit and Talk: RPGs, Blue Shirts, and the Mark of Dave Sit and Talk: RPGs, Blue Shirts, and the Mark of Dave
by MiniWarGaming | rated 5.0/5.0
In this week's show Matthew talks about roleplaying games he has played, shirts he has worn, and stuff that's gonna happen, and other random questions as well.

View more episodes from Sit and Talk

Clearance Item
80% Off

Rat Fur Primer
Rat Fur Primere
See details

Market price: CA$16.99
Our price: CA$3.40 (US$3.09)

Click here to see all Clearance items

Disable Ads
About this Content
MiniWarGaming's Avatar Author: MiniWarGaming
Added: March 30, 2012
Views: 2,931
Rated: 12345 (11)

Over 25 pages of comments - can Matthew get through them all?

Found in:
More From...
Cygnar vs Khador Warmachine battle Report - Warmachine League Season 3 Ep 32 Cygnar vs Khador Warmachine battle Report - Warmachine League Season 3 Ep 32
by MiniWarGaming | 358 views
Adam is Back with his Khador, this time he is playing Steve and his Cygnar!
Mercs vs Khador Warmachine Battle Report - Warmachine League Season 3 Ep 31 Mercs vs Khador Warmachine Battle Report - Warmachine League Season 3 Ep 31
by MiniWarGaming | 671 views
Adam brings in his Khador and a Conquest, to earn some achievements from ash and his Mercenary's
Quick Tip: Nurgle Guts Quick Tip: Nurgle Guts
by MiniWarGaming | 211 views
In this video Kris demonstrates how he paints the guts of a nurgle model.
The Patriarch (Mission 1b) - The Utgard Infestation Sisters of Battle 40k Narrative Campaign The Patriarch (Mission 1b) - The Utgard Infestation Sisters of Battle 40k Narrative Campaign
by MiniWarGaming | 4,468 views
Selene personally leads a strikeforce to deal with the cult, and soon comes face to face with its leader - a dangerous Tyranid Patriarch.
Urgent Message (Mission 1a) - The Utgard Infestation Sisters of Battle 40k Narrative Campaign Urgent Message (Mission 1a) - The Utgard Infestation Sisters of Battle 40k Narrative Campaign
by MiniWarGaming | 5,003 views
The force that Canoness Commander Selene sent to find the cult has discovered that the cult is Genestealer in origin, and not Chaos. They must escape the underbelly of the Hive in order to relay this information back to Selene.

Affiliate Program | Partner Program | Painting Partner Program | Contact Us | Legal Stuff | Job and Volunteer Opportunities