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misomiso (Over a year ago): - delete
Ok last repost. Really really sorry to everyone but I spotted a deliberate mistake in the Maths%u2026tried to delete the other posts but couldn%u2019t do it

Hey Mat
Posted this here as Id like to see you discuss. Ive noticed in you BRs that you always complain that your Tervigons stops creating Gaunts on Turn 1. This is quite an interesting probability question, and I cant find anywhere on the Internet that addresses this very well, so just for you, here is the comprehensive answer as to whether you should be upset if the Tervigon only produces on Turn 1.

The first question is what is the chance of rolling any doubles on 3d6? There are 216 totally unique roles on 3d6 (6*6*6), and of those, 96 contain doubles (16 of each type of double, which consists of three lots of 6 (18) MINUS (important) the two extra triples calculated). So the chance of rolling any double in any given role is 96/216, or 44%.

Next we take a five turn game, and work out the probability of the Tervigon ceasing to produce on any given turn.

Turn 1 44%
Turn 2 24.64% (0.56*0.44)
Turn 3 13.80% (0.56^2*0.44)
Turn 4 7.73% (0.56^3*0.44)
Turn 5 9.83%
On turn five, as it is the end of the game, it doesnt matter whether a double is rolled or not as there will not be an additional turn.

We then take the average number rolled on a 3d6, which is 3.5*3 or 10.5 (average roll on a six sided die is 3.5), and multiply the amount of Gaunts produced each turn to the chance of that turn happening.

Turn 1 0.44*10.5 =4.62
Turn 2 0.6464*21 =5.17
Turn 3 0.1380*32.5 =4.48
Turn 4 0.0773*42 =3.25
Turn 5 0.0983*52.5 =5.16

We then add these together and find that the average number of Gaunts produced by a Tervigon in a five turn game is 23(22.7).

BUT this average is high, because of the small probability of producing huge amounts of Gaunts (eg 42 by turn 4). The Mode (single most likely outcome) is only 10.5, as on the first turn there is still a whopping 44% chance that your Tervigon will cease production.

Note that for games over 5 turns the probability will be higher, and if a producing Tervigon is killed, then your average plummets, as on the next turn they would produce an average of 10.5 more Gaunts, and have a 56% chance of continuing to produce the following turns. Producing Tervigons must be protected at all costs in order to get best value from them.

So in strict probability terms you SHOULD be upset if a Tervigon stops creating Turn 1, but if you keep the ones alive that do keep producing then you should do very well!
misomiso (Over a year ago): - delete
Reposted as problem with apostrophies

Hey Mat
Posted this here as Id like to see you discuss. Ive noticed in you BRs that you always complain that your Tervigons stops creating Gaunts on Turn 1. This is quite an interesting probability question, and I cant find anywhere on the Internet that addresses this very well, so just for you, here is the comprehensive answer as to whether you should be upset if the Tervigon only produces on Turn 1.

The first question is what is the chance of rolling any doubles on 3d6? There are 216 totally unique roles on 3d6 (6*6*6), and of those, 96 contain doubles (16 of each type of double, which consists of three lots of 6 (18) MINUS (important) the two extra triples calculated). So the chance of rolling any double in any given role is 96/216, or 44%.

Next we take a five turn game, and work out the probability of the Tervigon ceasing to produce on any given turn.

Turn 1 44%
Turn 2 23.76% (0.54*0.44)
Turn 3 12.83% (0.54^2*0.44)
Turn 4 6.93% (0.54^3*0.44)
Turn 5 8.33%
On turn five, as it is the end of the game, it doesnt matter whether a double is rolled or not as there will not be an additional turn.

We then take the average number rolled on a 3d6, which is 3.5*3 or 10.5 (average roll on a six sided die is 3.5), and multiply the amount of Gaunts produced each turn to the chance of that turn happening.

Turn 1 0.44*10.5 =4.62
Turn 2 0.2376*21 =4.99
Turn 3 0.1283*32.5 =4.17
Turn 4 0.0693*42 =2.91
Turn 5 0.0833*52.5 =4.37

We then add these together and find that the average number of Gaunts produced by a Tervigon in a five turn game is 21.

BUT this average is high, because of the small probability of producing huge amounts of Gaunts (eg 42 by turn 4). The Mode (single most likely outcome) is only 10.5, as on the first turn there is still a whopping 44% chance that your Tervigon will cease production.

Note that for games over 5 turns the probability will be higher, and if a producing Tervigon is killed, then your average plummets, as on the next turn they would produce an average of 10.5 more Gaunts, and have a 54% chance of continuing to produce the following turns. Producing Tervigons must be protected at all costs in order to get best value from them.

So in strict probability terms you should be upset if a Tervigon stops producing Turn 1, but if real life if you got a good roll try not to be too unhappy!

misomiso (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey Mat
Posted this here as I%u2019d like to see you discuss. I%u2019ve noticed in you BR%u2019s that you always complain that your Tervigons stops creating Gaunts on Turn 1. This is quite an interesting probability question, and I can%u2019t find anywhere on the Internet that addresses this very well, so just for you, here is the comprehensive answer as to whether you should be upset if the Tervigon only produces on Turn 1.

The first question is what is the chance of rolling any doubles on 3d6? There are 216 totally unique roles on 3d6 (6*6*6), and of those, 96 contain doubles (16 of each type of double, which consists of three lots of 6 (18) MINUS (important) the two extra triples calculated). So the chance of rolling any double in any given role is 96/216, or 44%.

Next we take a five turn game, and work out the probability of the Tervigon ceasing to produce on any given turn.

Turn 1 44%
Turn 2 23.76% (0.54*0.44)
Turn 3 12.83% (0.54^2*0.44)
Turn 4 6.93% (0.54^3*0.44)
Turn 5 8.33%
On turn five, as it is the end of the game, it doesn%u2019t matter whether a double is rolled or not as there will not be an additional turn.

We then take the average number rolled on a 3d6, which is 3.5*3 or 10.5 (average roll on a six sided die is 3.5), and multiply the amount of Gaunts produced each turn to the chance of that turn happening.

Turn 1 0.44*10.5 =4.62
Turn 2 0.2376*21 =4.99
Turn 3 0.1283*32.5 =4.17
Turn 4 0.0693*42 =2.91
Turn 5 0.0833*52.5 =4.37

We then add these together and find that the average number of Gaunts produced by a Tervigon in a five turn game is 21.

BUT this average is high, because of the small probability of producing huge amounts of Gaunts (eg 42 by turn 4). The Mode (single most likely outcome) is only 10.5, as on the first turn there is still a whopping 44% chance that your Tervigon will cease production.

Note that for games over 5 turns the probability will be higher, and if a producing Tervigon is killed, then your average plummets, as on the next turn they would produce an average of 10.5 more Gaunts, and have a 54% chance of continuing to produce the following turns. Producing Tervigon%u2019s must be protected at all costs in order to get best value from them.

So in strict probability terms you should be upset if a Tervigon stops producing Turn 1, but if real life if you got a good roll try not to be too unhappy!
Ziosic (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey Matt.
Only being watching your videos since a few month but it brought back my flame for mini wargaming. My question is the folling, I can't decided between starting playing Warhammer Fantasy (by buying the Island of Blood) or Warmachine (By buying the two player set), which one you think is a better choice to jump back into the hobby?
bmoleski (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey Matt! I just wanted to say you've gotten me into Warhammer Fantasy! I already play 40k (Chaos SM and IG) but you've made me want to start a Tomb Kings army in Fantasy. I'm getting deployed overseas in a few months (I'll find a way to get on MWG somehow I promise) so it will have to wait until I get back. What's your favorite unit in the army? Mine is Price Apophas. A mummy made of scarabs? Yes please!
kayakalot (Over a year ago): - delete
yay just built a tactical squad
kayakalot (Over a year ago): - delete
on the subject of tau they can be good if the person uses them well. a tau player i play against always beats me, and i have never beaten him. please help.
kayakalot (Over a year ago): - delete
the 40k armys were originaly desined to be space versions of warhammer fantasy armys
Sarcasm (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey Matt now that you have shared your religious views with us how about we talk politics.. . or more politics. My question is what party on the federal level do you support. You do not have to answer this question, I will understand if you wish to keep some things private from your viewers.
redkeyboard (Over a year ago): - delete
or the eldar
redkeyboard (Over a year ago): - delete
@yohagan: Tau?
coolbloo22 (Over a year ago): - delete
I copy and posted this from the previous video Matt.

Hey Matt I made it to the end, I enjoy your vlogs and have found them helpful to pass the time painting/building. I have one quick question about some friends of mine, the problem is I have been in the hobby for about a year and played 30ish games with a plethora of friends/strangers but I have never lost a game. Now I don't consider myself a competitive player and I don't think am infallible and think its a real miracle that I haven't lost but the real problem is that the two friends I play often with freak out/complain/whine because they cannot beat me. I have tried to give them advice suggesting taticas and forums to learn how to combat my army but I think they have all but given up hope. So to clarify my question is should I try to purposely lose a game to either of them?
yohagan (Over a year ago): - delete
if
terran=space marines
zerg=tyranids
then
protoss=?
BoscoGotMilk (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey, Matt Thanks for the vlog. I painted a bloodletter and finished making my Grand Master Mordrak moddel with a custom cape and hammer. I wanted to ask if you did play ME3 what you thought about the ending. I also wanted to know if you have any tips for my chaos deamon army and what i should get next, i have a blood thirster, a ten man squad of Bloodletters, and pink horrors (which are not girly cause their pink) I was gonna for a fate weaver and some juggs. if you have any tips thanks.
Bannzai (Over a year ago): - delete
Long-time lurker, first time poster! Finally joined the vault when you did the magnet offer a few weeks ago, and I'm really enjoying the content. Are you shipping the magnets yet, because I've not heard anything about an ETA on the delivery, or even an order confirmation.

A bunch of us at work have gotten in to 40k recently, and your site has been great for teaching all sorts of stuff. I'm putting together an Ork army because I find their crazy style really fun, and I love Dan's bat reps.
BewareOfTom (Over a year ago): - delete
for in the 3rd part your talking about piracy, how do you feel about "digital backups"? like if you bought the book and just scanned it incase of it being wrecked somehow?
GuySmiley (Over a year ago): - delete
Hi Matt, Made it to the end! I love MiniWarGaming videos, I often have them in the background while I'm painting. You mentioned you started wargaming with GW's Lord of the Rings, do you still play? Have you played GW's War of the Rings? My sons and I are really getting into WotR, and really like painting the tons of troops needed. We're already excited for the Hobbit movies. When those get closer, do you think you guys might start batreps and/or "how to play" videos for LotR or WotR? Also, you mentioned not liking the scale of Heavy Gear Blitz, what do you think (if anything) of the Flames of War minis and game? Thanks!
Pricey333 (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey Matt, i have seen the new pots and they have a new tab on the back that stops them from closing on you while you paint.

I also had an idea for a possible competition in the future. Converting or making a miniature of your favourite scene/character from you favourite piece fluff from books codexes, army books or whatever. What would you make? Personally i would make Inquisitor Eisenhorne
Sovspot (Over a year ago): - delete
Maybe you should sell Flames of War. Became pretty popular in my games store.
Mandolore (Over a year ago): - delete
hey mat im new to warhammer n im starting tau could u give me some adivce n there r no one who play 40k here could give some advice with this as well also sorry for the rambling but do you think they will ever make more girl models like female imperal guards or female tau
mozza123 (Over a year ago): - delete
why dosent dan play with fred (the stompa)
DrakeMalice (Over a year ago): - delete
Sup Matt, what do you think of VASSAL? How does it affect your business?
Trex (Over a year ago): - delete
hell i love the tau codex. such a challenge but you can still win. of my last three games, ive tied one, lost one, and won one. but BS 4 would be amazing
CptValerius (Over a year ago): - delete
Just copied and pasted my comment from the last vid...sorry for the long comment.......Hey I watched the whole thing. Can't remember some of the questions I wanted to ask but a few are, with the vault monthly point reward system will you bee updating it in the near future? because I can't really decide what to get just started a 40k army so don't really want to use the points for warmachine yet even though I am tempted to. My main question is what is the GW 3 color tournament requirement? I am currently painting blood angels and they are mainly painted red so not sure how to fulfill this rule. And since u asked for a random question here it is: what do you think about my my little pony friendship Is magic?.......http://www.youtube.com/watc-h?v=JJbAT1wzS8U for starcraft fans ................................................................don't judge me Also just remembered...will you and/or anybody else be doing any live vlogs like you did a little while back...and do you think that GW will add some swarms or small attachments (like tau drones) to other races? i was thinking like servo skulls to the SM/IG armies (was thinking about a 40k book i read of ciaphas cain where some servo skulls were used in an assassination attempt by attaching small las weapons and chain weapons) To answer one question they do have a paint "conversion" page (http://www.games-workshop.com/gws/catalog/paintChart.jsp?catId=cat820002a&utm_term=other&utm_medium=email&utm_content=text-link-body&utm_source=e8700002-en_US&utm_campaign=PaintReminderNewsletter-en_US ) gives an idea of which paint to use where
JPisto (Over a year ago): - delete
Hey! So I started painting warhammer 40k about 7 years ago and just started picking the game up again. I realize I was fairly young when I started and the paint jobs are horrid! Is there any way I could go about getting the paint off? Or should I just paint over them? I am afraid there will be too much paint so it will cover up the detail. Great website and awesome batreps!
  Next Page
Sit and Talk: New Blood Angels, Smaug, Tau Manta, and more... Sit and Talk: New Blood Angels, Smaug, Tau Manta, and more...
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Sit and Talk: Baby Names, Harridans, and Hydra Sit and Talk: Baby Names, Harridans, and Hydra
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Sit and Talk: More Beat Matt Batreps, Decepticons, and Tau Campaigns Sit and Talk: More Beat Matt Batreps, Decepticons, and Tau Campaigns
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Matthew answers lots more questions, and talks about upcoming battle reports, Decepticons vs Autobots, upcoming Tau narrative campaigns, and more.
Sit and Talk: New Tyranids! Sit and Talk: New Tyranids!
by MiniWarGaming | rated 4.4/5.0
Matthew, not dressed in a suit and tie, answers more questions, such as his thoughts on the new Tyranid models, comparing Infinity and Warmachine's coverage, and more.
Sit and Talk:  White Dwarf, Movember, and the 10th Dimension... Sit and Talk: White Dwarf, Movember, and the 10th Dimension...
by MiniWarGaming | rated 4.8/5.0
We're back to "normal" Sit and Talks, and answer very typical questions like growing mustaches, string theory, and of course monstrous creatures.
Sit and Talk:  Halloween Special! Sit and Talk: Halloween Special!
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Mummy King Matthew answers all of your questions, and talks about Valhalla.
Sit and Talk: If the moon were a giant egg... Sit and Talk: If the moon were a giant egg...
by MiniWarGaming | rated 4.7/5.0
What would you do? Matthew answers this bizarre questions, and many others.

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MiniWarGaming's Avatar Author: MiniWarGaming
Added: March 30, 2012
Views: 2,952
Rated: 12345 (11)

Over 25 pages of comments - can Matthew get through them all?

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